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Forex News Timeline

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Commodities were mixed in the week, although the price of oil and precious metals were on the back foot, for the most part, ending lower into the Frid

Commodity traders looking for more clarity on trade wars.Gold and Silver are stuck below the 21-DMAs, with technicals leaning bearish.The price of oil is trading within familiar ranges, closing back below the $54 handle. Commodities were mixed in the week, although the price of oil and precious metals were on the back foot, for the most part, ending lower into the Friday close. In the main, prices continued to consolidate below a cluster of daily moving averages as investors weighed the various signs of easing geopolitical tensions vs softer economic growth data. 
 
Gold and Silver futures settled lower on Friday, while spot Gold ended, -1.98% travelling from a high of $1,493.51 to a low of $1.484.96. Silver prices on a spot basis were ending pretty much flat, travelling from a high of $17.60 to a low of 17.41, closing at 17.55. Gold for December delivery on Comex lost $4.20, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,494.10 an ounce while December Silver dropped 3.4 cents, or 0.2%, to end at $17.578 an ounce, for a weekly rise of 0.2%. 
 
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude finished -0.7% lower, losing the $54.60 handle to score a low of $53.34 as data showing slower Chinese economic growth fed worries about weaker demand for oil.WTI dell by 15 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $53.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, posting a 1.7% weekly decline. US / China trade up in the air With respect to US and China trade relations, it feels we are still a mile away from gaining a convincing breakthrough - since last week's announcements from Trump that a Phase-1 deal had been forged, China is seeking clarification on a number of issues before moving to contract – meanwhile, demanding that the US cancel new tariffs for a trade deal to take place - Indeed, there has not been any confirmation as to when a 'phase-1' agreement would be signed or whether the leaders of both countries planned to meet. “We hope both sides can continue to work together to advance the negotiations and, as soon as possible, reach a phased agreement and make new progress on cancelling tariffs,” said China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng.  Gold levels Gold bulls struggle at the 21-DMA and a bearish follow-through could be on the cards for next week. Bears will seek out the  50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs level around 1460/70 initially. On the other hand, bulls are just a break of the 50-DMA away from a close through the psychological 1500 level ahead of the 1520 area and the1535 resistance target.  Silver levels The price is in consolidation on the 17 handle. Bulls fear a re-run to the downside at this juncture with repeated failifn at the 21-DMA. The trend-line support will remain a focal point ahead of the  61.8% Fibonacci level down at 16.10, guarding the 200-day moving average which is resting in the 15.99s. WTI levels  The GMMAs remain bearish and WTI remains below the 50 and 21-day moving averages, with bulls losing sight of the 57 handle around the 200 DMA. Bears will seek a break below the 50 handle which will bring the prospects of a run down to the Nov 2018 lows at 49.39 again. the 46.90 level ahead of the 18th Dec lows down at 45.77 will then be in focus. 

US benchmarks ended on the back foot, barley off from their lows on Friday while earnings took the limelight as well as a pluge in the shares of Johns

The S&P 500 index ended 0.4% lower at 2,986.The Nasdaq Composite Index finished 0.8% lower at 8,090.The DJIA ended lower by 255 points, or 0.9%, at 26,770.US benchmarks ended on the back foot, barley off from their lows on Friday while earnings took the limelight as well as a pluge in the shares of Johnson and Johnson (J&J) as well as Boeing sinking. At the same time, market sentiment was slightly downbeat as slower Chinese GDP growth weighed on global equities.  Subsequently, the DJIA ended lower by 255 points, or 0.9%, at 26,770 with Boeing 1 shedding about 70 points from the price-weighted average – The news was that the Federal Aviation Administration said the aviation and defence contractor withheld "concerning" messages from 2016 between employees about a flight-control system tied to two fatal crashes of the 737 MAX. J&J and shares knocked off around 57-points from the index. The S&P 500 index ended 0.4% lower at 2,986, while the Nasdaq Composite Index finished 0.8% lower at 8,090. Chinese data and Fed speakers: China slowed to just a 6% in the third quarter from a 6.2% pace in the second quarter – this was the slowest pace since the early 1990s, as business investment weakened.  Meanwhile, remarks by Fed Vice-Chair Clarida provided no real new signals coming ahead of the Fed's media blackout. "Clarida reiterated that the Fed will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion and that the US economy is in a good place but faces "evident risks". He also said the economy is "muddling through" the recent uncertainty," analysts at TD Securities explained. DJIA levels DJIA plunged below the 27000s and a close below the trendline support was guarding a run to the 200-day moving average, (DMA), down in the 26000s. First up, however, the 21-DMA and the 50-DMA will likely be the first test for the bears. The bulls need to advance to the 27500s targets on a break of the 27200s - Trend-line resistance guards the July highs. 

This week USD/JPY consolidated the October bull run.  The level to beat for bears is the 108.16 support.

This week USD/JPY consolidated the October bull run. The level to beat for bears is the 108.16 support.   USD/JPY daily chart     USD/JPY is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (DSMA). The spot is currently retracing down after the October bull run.    USD/JPY four-hour chart     USD/JPY is above the main SMAs on the four-hour chart, suggesting a positive momentum in the medium term. The level to beat for buyers is the 108.56 resistance followed by the 108.90 level, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.  USD/JPY 30-minute chart     USD/JPY is trading below its primary SMAs, suggesting a bearish bias in the near term. Next week, the sellers might target the support levels at 108.16 and 107.70, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    Additional key levels  
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