Commodity traders looking for more clarity on trade wars.Gold and Silver are stuck below the 21-DMAs, with technicals leaning bearish.The price of oil is trading within familiar ranges, closing back below the $54 handle. Commodities were mixed in the week, although the price of oil and precious metals were on the back foot, for the most part, ending lower into the Friday close. In the main, prices continued to consolidate below a cluster of daily moving averages as investors weighed the various signs of easing geopolitical tensions vs softer economic growth data.
Gold and Silver futures settled lower on Friday, while spot Gold ended, -1.98% travelling from a high of $1,493.51 to a low of $1.484.96. Silver prices on a spot basis were ending pretty much flat, travelling from a high of $17.60 to a low of 17.41, closing at 17.55. Gold for December delivery on Comex lost $4.20, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,494.10 an ounce while December Silver dropped 3.4 cents, or 0.2%, to end at $17.578 an ounce, for a weekly rise of 0.2%.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude finished -0.7% lower, losing the $54.60 handle to score a low of $53.34 as data showing slower Chinese economic growth fed worries about weaker demand for oil.WTI dell by 15 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $53.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, posting a 1.7% weekly decline.
US / China trade up in the air
With respect to US and China trade relations, it feels we are still a mile away from gaining a convincing breakthrough - since last week's announcements from Trump that a Phase-1 deal had been forged, China is seeking clarification on a number of issues before moving to contract – meanwhile, demanding that the US cancel new tariffs for a trade deal to take place - Indeed, there has not been any confirmation as to when a 'phase-1' agreement would be signed or whether the leaders of both countries planned to meet.
“We hope both sides can continue to work together to advance the negotiations and, as soon as possible, reach a phased agreement and make new progress on cancelling tariffs,” said China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng.
Gold bulls struggle at the 21-DMA and a bearish follow-through could be on the cards for next week. Bears will seek out the 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs level around 1460/70 initially. On the other hand, bulls are just a break of the 50-DMA away from a close through the psychological 1500 level ahead of the 1520 area and the1535 resistance target.
The price is in consolidation on the 17 handle. Bulls fear a re-run to the downside at this juncture with repeated failifn at the 21-DMA. The trend-line support will remain a focal point ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci level down at 16.10, guarding the 200-day moving average which is resting in the 15.99s.
The GMMAs remain bearish and WTI remains below the 50 and 21-day moving averages, with bulls losing sight of the 57 handle around the 200 DMA. Bears will seek a break below the 50 handle which will bring the prospects of a run down to the Nov 2018 lows at 49.39 again. the 46.90 level ahead of the 18th Dec lows down at 45.77 will then be in focus.